Resources

Congratulations to our newest "Raise the Flag" participants! We are always humbled and excited to work with such amazing people and organizations through our "Raise the Flag" initiative.

For October, we are highlighting the wonderful work performed by Steve and Stephanie G. and Compassion Café. Compassion Café is a non-profit located in Southern Ocean county, New Jersey, that employs teenagers and adults with intellectual and physical disabilities to provide paid employment. Through Compassion Café, those employed teenagers and adults will gain independence, self-confidence, and successful work skills through hands-on training and employment.

What is Raise the Flag?

A “give back” campaign intended to increase awareness of the charities/organizations our clients support. Michael Roberts Associates will be making a $100 donation to each participating organization. We are always humbled and excited to work with such amazing people and organizations through our Raise the Flag initiative.

For September, we highlight the excellent work of Carey M. and Still Brook Fish and Game Club. Carey is the secretary of the Still Brook Fish and Game Club. Through the club, a free lifetime hunting and fishing license is given away each year to someone during their annual fishing derby.

We are excited to introduce Jesse Farley as our marketing intern for the fall of 2022! His focus will be on brand marketing, social media marketing, and events. Jesse is a welcomed addition to our team.

What is Raise the Flag?

A “give back” campaign intended to increase awareness of the charities/organizations our clients support. Michael Roberts Associates will be making a $100 donation to each participating organization.

This month we are highlighting the incredible work performed by Jim C. and Empower Parkinson, Inc.

In effort to highlight our amazing family of clients, last month Michael Roberts Associates launched Raise the Flag – a “give back” campaign intended to increase awareness of charities/organizations that our clients support. The response was incredible! We are humbled to partner with such an amazing group of individuals. This post is the first of many, highlighting the extraordinary charities and organizations you help support. Michael Roberts Associates will be making a $100 donation to each participating organization.

Volatility is uncomfortable. No one enjoys seeing their portfolio decline in value. However, volatility is the price of admission to the stock market. It is what allows us to achieve an annualized return of 12% since 1980. It is what allows your retirement assets to grow and combat the villain that is inflation. Volatility is what we sign up for when we invest in any risk-asset.

You’ve been working with a wealth manager for a few years now. Your savings are built up to a level that makes both mathematical and behavioral sense to you e.g., 3-12 months of expenses built up, targeted savings bucket for big life purchases, special expenses etc. You’ve received guidance and developed a game plan to pay down outstanding debt such as student loans. Things feel good. You’ve made real progress and are now exploring ways to maximize your retirement savings.

2021 highlighted the momentum-like nature of market cap weighted indices. Despite all the chop we saw from the average stock in the US, an index like the S&P 500 was able to stay above its 50-day moving average 91% of the time. Talk about strength of trend! 2021 was a very difficult year for investors seeking passive exposure to global ex. US equities. It’s easy to point to the monster returns achieved from the major US stock market averages, but around the globe other markets struggled to keep pace. In a passive world, it can feel as if market capitalization is all that matters. Majority of indices are constructed in a way that benefit from a type of momentum due to market cap weighting i.e., A company appreciates in value, simultaneously increasing its market cap, resulting in a larger index weighting and increased influence on the direction of said index. But what happens when the largest weighted components fail to keep up or just downright decline?

Among my many conversations with clients this past week, three of them were with people roughly my age who were contemplating what the next 10 years will look like for them. All three had essentially the same thought and wanted to bounce some ideas off our team. The conversations went in the direction of discussing risk tolerance and asset allocation for a pre-retiree. All three of these clients had similar personal financial situations – they had been working and saving for 35 years or more, had been good savers and built a comfortable sized retirement nest egg, had put their kids through college and paid off their mortgage. All three indicated that they wanted to work around 10 more years.

We find ourselves in the heart of earnings season as US stocks continue to print new all-time highs. The story of Q3 was not one of market euphoria or investor complacency. Rather, the true story consisted of seasonal trend, bond pessimism and China equities. Let us begin with seasonality. On our right, is a chart of the average daily return for the S&P 500 from 1990-2019 (black line) overlayed with the index’s price path for 2021 (red line). The month of September is a seasonally weak period for stocks. Typically, we see this weakness fade in early to mid-October, followed by a strong finish to the year. It’s mind boggling how similar 2021’s price path is to the seasonal pattern. However, seasonality is just one piece of information. Although interesting, if seasonal trends held such a strong predictive power, forecasting returns would be simple and our jobs as wealth managers would cease to exist! As we’ve stressed in previous write ups, it’s just one datapoint.